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一 |     Growing concerns over rampant inflation and an aggressive use of classic monetary tools by the US central bank have fanned fears of recession across Wall Street and in Washington, reported Politico.,President Joe Biden may have insisted that “there’s nothing inevitable” about a US recession, but repeating that mantra is unlikely to make it a reality, claim analysts. Accordingly, Wall Street is increasingly building the gloomy possibility of recession into its forecasts.,A “brief yet shallow” recession could start in the last three months of the year, according to Dana Peterson, the chief economist at The Conference Board, speaking at a “Women Rule” event cited by Politico.,Michael Feroli, the chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase, believes that a downturn could start as soon as this quarter, as he pointed to consumer beginning to slow.,“Things are looking like we’re losing altitude pretty quickly,” he was cited as saying.,Fed's Anti-Inflation Tactic Unhelpful, Should Focus on Supply Chains, Economist Says2 July, 18:53 GMT,A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. This is made official when confirmed by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The bureau defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”,US Markets Lost up to 30% This Year Amid Soaring Inflation, Fuel Prices, Sanctions Backlash1 July, 16:59 GMT,The US government confirmed last week that the economy shrank in the first three months of the year. The US Commerce Department has revised its reading on first-quarter GDP down from an initial print for a 1.5% drop, showing a 1.6% contraction. The Atlanta Fed’s economic growth tracker pointed to the increased chances of a second-quarter contraction.,Fed Chair: Recession 'a Possibility',Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, Jerome Powell, weighed in on the current economic volatility on June 29. Speaking at a European Central Bank forum held in Portugal, he said that one way to fight inflation was to slow growth while keeping it positive.,"Is there a risk that would go too far? Certainly, there's a risk. I wouldn't agree that it's the biggest risk to the economy. The bigger mistake to make ... would be to fail to restore price stability," Powell said,Earlier, addressing the Senate Banking Committee a week after the Fed ordered the largest interest rate increase since 1994 in response to a four-decade inflation high of 8.6% in May, Powell said:,"We need to get inflation back down to 2%. We're using our tools to do that.”,The Fed Chair acknowledged that the current data pointed to the risk of an economic slowdown.,"It's certainly a possibility. It's not our intended outcome at all but it's certainly a possibility. We're not trying to provoke — and don't think that we will need to provoke — a recession… But we do think it's absolutely essential that we restore price stability, really for the benefit of the labor market as much as anything else.",After the Fed maintained interest rates near zero for the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, now it has implemented aggressive monetary tools historically used to lower inflated consumer prices.,The Fed raised interest rates since March, bringing them to a high of 1.75% - the largest since 1994. The central bank has said it will continue with its hikes till current inflation of more than 8% returns to its target of 2% per annum. However, the policy has failed to make a dent in inflation.,Furthermore, coupled with price spikes, the moves sent the benchmark S&P 500 stock index plummeting to its worst performance in the first half of the year since 1970.,President Joe Biden has publicly backed Powell’s efforts. In a sit-down interview with the Associated Press, Biden reiterated that the US was “in a stronger position than any nation in the world to overcome this inflation,” and also said a US recession is “not inevitable.”,However, troubles driven by the coronavirus pandemic recovery, such as soaring inflation as far back as in November 2021, were exacerbated in 2022. Amid growing oil, gas and fuel prices, the economic woes were further worsened by the self-inflicted aftershock of anti-Russia sanctions, implemented over Moscow’s special military operation in Ukraine.,US Consumer Sentiment at New Record Low Amid Runaway Inflation - UMich Poll24 June, 20:23 GMT,Amid this foreboding, Bien’s administration is bracing for recession, despite some Democrats still clinging to optimistic forecasts.,“A recession would be really problematic for the American people. Boy, are we ever a long way from a recession though,” Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) said in an interview.,However, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., warned that the Fed’s increase in borrowing costs could trigger layoffs.,"You know what's worse than high inflation and low unemployment? It's high inflation and a recession with millions of people out of work. I hope you'll reconsider that, before you drive this economy off a cliff," Warren stated.,A White House official was cited as acknowledging that the economy faces a range of global risks, but touted the country’s economic strengths. The strong labor market, consumer spending and business investment all “position us well – better than almost any other country – to build on our strong economic foundation and transition to steady, stable growth, with lower inflation,” the source was cited by Politico as saying.。    随着大众护肤观念不断更新，如今防晒产品已摆脱“夏日限定”标签，成为贯穿全年的日常刚需。同时，因消费场景的不断细分，消费者对防晒产品的期待也从单一的防护力，转向兼具便捷与卫生等功效。近日，记者走访北京多家零售卖场发现，次抛防晒霜、独立封装次抛防晒口罩等产品购销两旺，将即开即用、轻量化的体验延伸至防晒领域，为全季节、碎片化防晒提供了新选择。图为次抛防晒口罩。　　记者在多家卖场的美妆护肤专区看到，Mistine等品牌的次抛防晒霜被摆在显眼位置。电商平台上，蕉下、骆驼等户外品牌也纷纷跨界推出次抛防晒霜。不同于主流30克、50克等大容量瓶装防晒霜，这类产品单袋容量仅约1克，剂量恰好满足面部与颈部单次涂抹。

二 | 　　“次抛防晒产品上架以来很受欢迎，目前门店库存已经基本售罄，正等待补货。”某美妆门店导购介绍，以往消费者选购防晒产品多比拼SPF（防晒系数）数值，如今越来越多顾客优先关注其使用的便捷性与卫生性。

三 | 正在店内选购商品的焉女士对此深有体会：“瓶装防晒霜随身携带容易渗漏，补涂时很难把控用量，涂少了防护不足，涂多了又容易搓泥。这种次抛款一次一支，外出补涂非常方便。

四 | ”　　业内人士指出，次抛模式的核心价值不仅在于定量使用，更在于“锁鲜”。由于次抛单支容量即为一次性用量，大大减少了配方成分与空气接触的机会，能更好地保持其活性，适合封装含有易失活成分的产品。　　记者在采访中还发现，次抛模式不仅限于防晒霜，在名创优品等快消品门店，独立封装的次抛防晒口罩也成为销售亮点。以某品牌8片装的次抛防晒口罩为例，包装上明确标注了“次抛免洗”“纳米微晶防晒科技”“UPF50+防护标准”等信息。“不少敏感肌顾客偏爱这款，长时间佩戴传统可水洗口罩或防晒面罩容易闷肤长痘，次抛款式干净清爽，通勤、骑行使用十分方便。”门店工作人员介绍。　　次抛模式兴起的背后，是防晒消费场景的全面延伸。艾媒咨询调研显示，如今防晒已从单一的户外场景渗透到通勤、办公、旅游等方方面面，成为全场景日常需求。

五 | 业内人士分析，次抛包装本质上是对当下消费者卫生焦虑与轻装上阵等心理的精准回应，将防晒从长时间户外的“全副武装”转变为随时随地进行的“轻防护”。　　某美妆品牌负责人表示，除常见的次抛精华外，防晒、卸妆等产品也开始尝试次抛形式，且市场的竞争核心正从早期的包装形式和基础成分，向更深层次的技术壁垒、精准功效和场景洞察转移。　　产业发展趋势同样印证了这一变化。中国香料香精化妆品工业协会在近日发布的《2025年中国化妆品产业发展报告》中指出，化妆品竞争已由单一功效比拼转向原料、配方、包装、消费体验在内的多维较量，消费者选购标准持续升级，更加看重产品安全性、实用性与使用体验。

六 | 消费需求、生活场景持续变化催生大量细分赛道，或许次抛防晒产品的兴起正是这一趋势的生动体现。

七 |

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